One of the most common questions that is currently asked by clients is what the prospects are for commercial property in the future. We have all by now – in our new normal world - got used to meeting our dearest friends, family, and work colleagues on Zoom or Skype, working from home, and shopping online.  High streets and shopping malls were struggling even before the events of 2020 with Debenhams and several middle-market food chains in trouble.

That has led some investors to beg the question as to what the future holds for commercial property. Will everyone work from home? Will companies reduce their office space needs, providing workers with a hot desk each morning, if they are in? Will retail companies go into administration to put pressure on landlords to reduce rents?  Will more people shop online? The answer to all of these questions is probably ‘yes’. Does that mean that we should abandon a well-diversified, liquid exposure to global commercial property accessed via real estate investment trusts (REITs), which are listed property companies, focused almost exclusively on generating rental income? We think not.

First, let us look at the flipside of the changes that are occurring. To be sure, some sectors may struggle.  But for every Debenhams, there will be a company moving into, or even starting up, online, which will require logistics centers and warehousing. In our digital age, there is increasing demand for secure and up-to-date data centers, improved and more numerous healthcare facilities for example. You can see from the chart below that the global commercial property REITs cover many things.

In a globally diversified REIT index fund, there are over 350 individual REITs (listed property companies) each of which is comparable to a property fund in its own right. It is estimated that such a fund contains around 90,000 properties[1] spread across property types, global markets, and strategies.

Second, let us spend a moment thinking about markets. These worries about the retail sector, for example, have been around for some time and you will not be the only person thinking about these issues. In fact, thousands - or even millions – of people will already have done so and acted on their view of the future of property, by buying and selling these REITs in the market. The aggregate view will be reflected in today’s REIT prices: all the doom, gloom and uncertainty is priced into the process of REITs already;  all the likelihood that the way we work changes is priced in already; and all the good news about data centers and warehousing is priced in already. So, the future prospects for commercial property will depend on what happens relative to this expectation.  It may be better or worse, depending on information we do not yet know. The release of that information is random. What we do know is that commercial property will continue to be needed and that companies will have to pay rent. We would not abandon owning a diversified equity portfolio because some sectors are struggling (airlines and energy) or concentrate our portfolio in sectors that are booming (technology). It is already in the price. Companies and sectors wax and wane.

Third, let us think about why we hold it in portfolios in the first place. Property tends to have a different return experience to equities (even though property companies are listed on stock markets). At specific times, and across time, this can provide diversification to a portfolio. In addition, over time property has provided protection from inflation; after all, a property is a property and many rental agreements are linked to some measure of inflation. With the rapid increase in the money supply, on account of all the government support packages around the world, higher inflation - not something most feel the need to worry about currently – is one future scenario. Cover the bases - but all things in moderation - is a sensible approach. An allocation to global commercial property still makes sense for long-term investors, as part of their diversified growth assets.

[1] Source: Prologis is the largest REIT at 5% of the index and owns ~4,500 properties.  Scaling this up implies around 90,000 properties across the index, as a rough proxy.

Risk warnings

This article is distributed for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. This article contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily the Firm and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product.  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation is made that the stated results will be replicated.

Sustainable & responsible jewellery

March newsletter 2020

Ifamax's view on Sustainability

Could you give us a little introduction to yourself?

“I am a self-employed designer/maker of Fiona Lewis Jewellery. I live in Chipping Sodbury, a pretty Cotswold market town that has independent shops, cafes, pubs and bars. It is well worth a visit for an afternoon out. I love the countryside in all winds and weathers, the peace and space provide my inspiration… my mind is constantly forming shapes and movement into designs, and probably a source for a lifetime of jewellery and some more!

When I am not working, I am walking, travelling abroad, sewing, gardening, socialising, and spending time with my fabulous partner David, who encourages me in everything I do. My son and daughter are both creative so family conversation is often about our next projects. I keep chickens, and Prudence the cat who has decided the feral lifestyle is not for her, she prefers my sofa and a warm lap. ”

Tell me about how you came to be a jeweller?

“I attended a senior school where the pupils were all taught metalwork. I found my niche and was in my element during those lessons; forging, using the lathe, soldering and cutting, and unusually for me was top of the class. However, to my great disappointment, when the time came to select my options, I was informed Engineering and Metalwork was the ‘boys only’ option. I was disappointed to say the least but I stored in my mind some idea that one day I would revisit metalworking. In 2010 after quite a few decades of waiting for the right time, I booked an evening class in silversmithing. I learned to design and make jewellery and my passion for metalwork was reignited. Within 18 months, and due to popular demand from friends wanting to buy from me, I was selling my creations. I have continued to refine my skills, design, make and sell my jewellery in my online Etsy shop and through my Facebook page.”

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How do you define yourself?

“I am a magpie for shiny metal, and beautiful stones but also have a passion for a sustainable, responsible approach to my business. The gold and silver I use is either recycled by my suppliers, or I reuse my customers’ gold to create bespoke pieces for them. I source diamonds and precious stones from ethical suppliers and use recycled materials in packaging.”

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Tell me about the evolution and range of your styles of jewellery.

“I began by making jewellery that was inspired by nature and my love of the outdoors. Over time, I have concentrated on pure form, and more contemporary abstract shapes. Learning to set my own stones is a challenge, but also a delight, those are my hands that have touched each piece from start to finish. I make everything using traditional methods of silversmithing, using hand tools. I love the forged shaped look, and adding droplets of gold, the technical term for ‘droplets’ is an unromantic ‘granulation’. Adding the sparkle of my favourite diamonds and sapphires creates a unique, contemporary look in a piece.”

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What is the greatest recognition of your work so far?

“I talk to my customers and like to have a feel for who I am making for… so my recognition is from them, their reviews and feedback. I think this review is one of my favourites so far:”

“From the very moment I saw her work, I knew Fiona was the person I wanted to make a very special gift for my daughter. The communication between Fiona and myself was brilliant as she responded positively and instantly knew what I envisaged. Her patience and eagerness to supply me with a pendant that would match my idea was amazing; nothing was too much trouble. Once Fiona had confirmed all the details, she gave me a time frame and the pendant was made and dispatched within the time. It arrived securely packaged and beautifully presented in a gift box. The pendant is exquisite and has surpassed my hopes and wishes. It is a piece of art and will be treasured for years to come. If the reader needs someone with skill and vision, Fiona is this person”.

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What can we expect next from you?

“I will soon be learning to carve wax to create shapes to be cast. In my imagination I have a variety of beautiful, tiny birds that will become gold and silver jewellery, I am sourcing tiny black diamonds for little beady eyes, and peacock sapphires to flush set on wings.

My dream is to create a collection of kinetic jewellery and boxes with meaning; to celebrate life, a lost love, a friendship, special moment or emotion etc. I would incorporate a series of cogs or perhaps a chain to provide movement. Doors would open, hearts would spin and birds fly around the sun. Yes, there I go again…. Another lifetime and more of ideas!”

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Best of luck with your endeavours Fiona and thank you for being this months client in the spotlight.

If any other clients would like to feature in a future newsletter with a story, profile, charitable fundraising or discussion on a topic you would like to share please do get in touch.

Andy, his wife Sally and their son Jack, have been Ifamax clients since early 2018. After qualifying as an accountant following university, Andy then worked his way through the financial services industry as a sales and commercial director.

After becoming disillusioned and bored with corporate life Andy, Sally and a couple of friends set up their own financial claims business from their bedroom in 2004.

By 2008 they had 45 staff, a turnover of £7m and an average customer satisfaction score of 9.5 out of 10. It was this great feedback from customers that Andy notes as one of the most enjoyable parts of being in business.

When the time came to exit the business, they did consider selling but;

“thought the purchaser were unlikely to have the same customer focus that we did. We decided it better to bring in a couple of directors to allow us to take a step back and eventually wind the company down.”

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So how has all this led to Andy running around in a 10kg Rhino suit?

“One thing that defined me was that I was hugely overweight as a child and reached 18 stone at 17. I then lost 6 stone over a few months when I was 18. This was my biggest achievement in life (bigger than the business and running achievements).

Not only did it change my life completely and gave me confidence but also taught me that I had the determination to do the things I wanted to.”

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For this reason Andy sees running as massively important for both keeping off the weight he lost when he was young and as a continuing challenge for himself. After clocking up over 60 marathons and ultras all over the world for the last 30 years, he has now decided that it makes sense to challenge himself even further!

“I am getting slower but still like to look for a new challenge. I’ve never run a marathon in costume and the rhino costume is iconic so it seemed an obvious step. I contacted the charity in August last year to apply to run for them. Since then I have learned a lot more about the plight of the rhino. It staggers me that in this day and age we are still cruel to and slaughtering animals for totally unnecessary reasons and monetary gain.

Rhino horns are used in traditional medicine and as a sign of wealth. We have eliminated 95% of rhinos and 3 of the rhino species are on the endangered list. By running in the marathon and doing talks in schools I hope I can do a little bit to raise awareness of the rhino and what’s being done to stop rhinos, and other animals facing a similar plight, becoming extinct”

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When Andy first sent over pictures of him wearing the suit itself we were all surprised at how big, heavy and uncomfortable it looked and it appears that after taking it out for a practice trot last week he has confirmed it is all three.

“It moves around a lot, has limited visibility and is big and hot. It changes your running style and you have to hold the head when you to keep it still which quickly makes your arms ache!! I really hope that it’s not too warm on marathon day. Little wonder the charity said not to run too much in it before London because it might put me off doing the marathon itself.”

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Andy hopes to raise an impressive £5,000 for Save the Rhino International and all at Ifamax wish him well in trying to reach that target, the many training runs to come and indeed the big day itself on Sunday 26th April.

If you would like to read more information on Andy’s fund raising and ongoing training efforts please feel free to visit his Just Giving page by clicking the button below:

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Good luck Andy and thank you for being our first client in the spotlight.

If any other clients would like to feature in a future newsletter with a story, profile, event or indeed some charitable fundraising of your own please get in touch.